Market Wrap: 02/11/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Nov):10452 (-25; -0.24%)
(TTM PE: 26.53; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 394;
NS: 10452; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Nov):25465 (-65; -0.26%)
(TTM PE: 28.19; Abv 2-SD of 25; TTM Q1FY18 EPS:
902; BNS: 25427; Avg PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 03/11/2017:
Key support for NF:
10450-10390
Key resistance for NF: 10505-10575
Key support for BNF:
25225-25050
Key resistance for BNF:
25575-25775
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, NF has to sustain over 10525 area for further rally towards
10575-10625 & 10675-10825 zone in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10505 area, NF may fall towards 10450-10390
& 10330-10290 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, BNF has to
sustain over 25625 area for further rally towards 25775-25935 & 26100-26325
zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side,
sustaining below 25575 area, BNF may fall towards 25400-25225 & 25050-24850
area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50)
today closed around 10452, dropped by almost 25 points (-0.25%) after making an
opening session high of 10473 and mid-session low of 10433 as market basically
consolidated yesterday’s “ease of doing business” boost rally.
Indian market today opened around 10459, edged down by around 14 points tracking subdued global/Asian cues as USD
goes lower on Fed chair & US tax cut suspense despite a fairly “hawkish
hold” stance from Fed yesterday; as a Dec’17 rate hike by Fed is almost
discounted, market may be now concerned over credibility of Fed’s 2018 dot-lots
(3 hikes) under new leadership.
A lower USD is not good for export savvy Asian & EU market
and also Nifty index as almost 60% OF Nifty earnings come from export. But a
lower USD may be good for overall Indian economy, being import oriented.
Again, at the same time, Brent Oil, hovering around $60 with a
hawkish Fed going for dual QT, may be also not good for Indian economy &
CAD/Fiscal deficit equation; combination of higher USD & higher oil may be
a major headwind for Indian economy & the market in the coming days. China
bond market concern is also affecting the overall global/Asian market
sentiment.
Although Indian Mfg PMI for Oct, which was released yesterday
was quite muted at 50.3, just above the boom/bust line of 50 and Oct auto sales
figures were also subdued below the usual double digit growth, market largely
ignored that yesterday amid euphoria of WB booster of “ease of doing business”,
an alternative mechanism of PSBS consolidation and a global goldilocks rally.
Both the data (PMI & Auto sales) may be indicating about GST
& DeMo blues and some other structural issues on the Indian economy, which
is slowing down. Also, overall Q2 earnings so far may be termed as mixed/muted
and may not be justifying the exorbitant PE (TTM) of Nifty now stands above 26
against an average value of 15-20.
Today Nifty was supported
by ICICI Bank, Auro Pharma (US FDA approval), Sun Pharma, TCS, HDFC, Power Grid
(earnings optimism ahead of result), HCL Tech, Adani Ports, Lupin & DRL by
cumulatively around 25 points.
Nifty was dragged by
ITC, SBI, RIL, Bharti Infratel, TechM (subdued report card), HUL, Hero Motors,
Tata Motors (muted auto sales nos), ONGC, & VEDL by around 32 points
altogether.
Overall,
today Indian market was boosted by healthcare/pharmaceuticals on US FDA
optimism after it clears Divis Lab from import alert and given a spate of
product approvals; Trump’s deregulation move may be working here!! Apart from
healthcare, market was also supported by Financials, selected techs &
property developers. Divis Labs rallied by over 17% on lifting of import alert
from one of his factory, which may contribute only 5% of its US revenue!!
Market
was dragged by PSBS on concern about the whole mechanism of recaps &
consolidation; also Govt’s thinking of merging weaker PSBS with relatively
stronger ones may be negative for the later; recent merger of SBI with its
associates is an example on strain of consolidated B/S.
Apart
from banks, market was further dragged by automobiles (muted Oct sales figure),
FMCG (muted volume amid GST disruptions), media, and metals to some extent on
China concern.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil
(WTI) is now trading around 54.30, edged up by around 0.05% after making an
overnight low of 53.88 on less than expected crude drawdown report from EIA
contrary to earlier report of API; it has earlier made a multi month high of
55.20.
As noted yesterday, technically,
next hurdle for WTI is around 55.25 zone and only sustaining above that,
57.70-59.05 area may be easily visible; otherwise it will come down; near term
support is now around 53.70-52.70 zone.
European Market May Consolidate Today Amid Subdued Global Cues On Lower USD
Asia Edged Down Amid Subdued Global Cues On Lower USD & Renewed Concern Over China's "Minsky Moment"
USD Drops On US Tax Reform Squabbling & Fresh NK Missile Tensions
SGX-NF
WTI
No comments:
Post a Comment